Bitcoin has recently shown signs of decoupling from traditional financial markets while testing crucial support levels around $95,000.
This comes amid renewed debates about the transparency of traditional assets, sparked by Senator Rand Paul’s call for an audit of Fort Knox. Institutional sentiment seems wary, with bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) seeing significant withdrawals of $430 million last trading week.
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These outflows align with broader macroeconomic concerns and recent hawkish remarks made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Bitcoin’s relationship with the S&P 500 has decreased to zero, a notable change from January’s strong positive correlation. The last instance of such decorrelation occurred in November 2024, before Bitcoin’s surge past $100,000.
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— Binance (@binance) February 16, 2025
This decoupling indicates that Bitcoin might be viewed increasingly as an autonomous asset class. Despite current market pressures, industry executives maintain positive views.
Jeff Park, the head of alpha strategies, described Bitcoin as a “generational opportunity,” while Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley expressed optimistic views about Bitcoin’s mass adoption potential in the coming year.
The Fort Knox audit debate has highlighted Bitcoin’s transparency advantage. Bitcoin’s blockchain allows for constant, real-time verification of supply and ownership, unlike traditional gold reserves, which require external audits and face counterfeiting risks. Influential figures like Senator Cynthia Lummis have been inspired by this capability to advocate for the creation of US state Bitcoin reserves.
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0:00 -… pic.twitter.com/tHXbsGtCEa— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) February 17, 2025
Bitcoin decouples amid market uncertainty
Currently, Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, with price behavior signaling potential further downward movement. On daily charts, technical indicators reveal several “death crosses” where shorter-term moving averages cross below longer-term ones.
Key support levels are set at $95,000 and $92,000, with significant bid liquidity centered around these values. Market data indicates reduced aggressive buying at lower levels, with Bitcoin trading below the psychologically significant $100,000 barrier. Movement from derivative markets to spot exchanges suggests the possible start of a bearish trend, according to CryptoQuant.
Volatility has declined, with 7-day realized volatility falling to 36%. Low open interest suggests options traders are waiting for specific regulatory changes rather than reacting to pro-crypto rhetoric. With bears potentially targeting the $94,000 mark, the immediate technical outlook shows Bitcoin facing resistance at the moving averages.
A break below $90,000 could complete a double-top pattern, which may have significant bearish implications. However, strong buyer support is anticipated around current levels. Key resistance levels are identified at $97,000 and $98,000, while substantial support zones are at $95,500 and $95,000.
The Relative Strength Index remains below 50, and the MACD indicator points to bearish momentum, indicating ongoing short-term pressure.