Small business owners are feeling optimistic about the economy in 2025. A recent survey by JPMorgan Chase found that 71% of midsize company executives see no recession on the horizon. This is a big shift from last year, when 40% thought a recession was coming or already here.
The number of executives who are confident in the national economy more than doubled, from 31% to 65%. This was the biggest one-year jump since 2017. Companies are even more optimistic about their own performance, with 75% feeling good about their prospects.
Most middle-market leaders expect higher revenue and profits this year. Half plan to hire more workers, up from last year. The top growth strategies are introducing new products and services, forming partnerships, and making investments.
However, confidence in the global economy is lower, at just 29%. Ongoing conflicts and tensions around the world are likely reasons for this. Costs are also still rising for most midsize companies.
Small business owners, with annual revenues of $100,000 to $20 million, are somewhat less optimistic than larger companies.
Small businesses adopt AI in 2025
But most still don’t expect a recession.
Over half are confident in the national economy, up 12 points from last year. About two-thirds expect higher sales and profits, similar to midsize companies. As the economy stabilizes, small businesses are focusing on digital transformation in 2025.
A separate JPMorgan Chase survey found that 4 in 5 have adopted or plan to adopt artificial intelligence (AI). About half will add more AI applications this year. To support this, around 40% expect to increase capital spending.
Many predict higher profits and sales ahead. However, as small businesses become more tech-enabled, cybersecurity is a rising concern. 1 in 3 were hit by cyberattacks in 2023, which can cause costly damage.
Overall, the economic outlook is positive for small and midsize businesses in 2025. Most are confident and expect growth, despite some global economic concerns. Digital transformation and AI adoption will be key trends to watch.
But businesses will also need to stay vigilant about protecting their technology investments from cyber threats.